OPEC + raises its forecast for oil demand growth in 2022

The headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria, Dec. 17, 2018.

Beata Zawrzel | NurPhoto | Getty Images

OPEC + revised upward its oil demand forecast for 2022 ahead of an oil-producing group meeting on Wednesday, as the United States pushes to ramp up production faster to support the global economy.

Two OPEC + sources said the group’s experts revised oil demand growth forecasts in 2022 to 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd), from 3.28 million bpd previously.

OPEC + expects global oil demand to increase by 5.95 million bpd in 2021 after a record drop of around 9 million bpd in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies, a group known as OPEC +, are meeting at 3:00 p.m. GMT on Wednesday to set policy.

Sources told Reuters the meeting was likely to overturn existing policies despite pressure from the United States to pump more oil.

However, the forecast of higher demand strengthens the case for a faster increase in OPEC + production, with benchmark Brent crude trading above $ 72 per barrel near highs. multi-year.

The revised demand forecast came at the OPEC + Joint Technical Committee (JTC), which on Tuesday presented an updated report on the state of the oil market in 2021-2022.

On Tuesday, OPEC + sources said the report, which has not been released, forecast a deficit of 0.9 million bpd this year as global demand recovers.

The report originally forecast a surplus of 2.5 million bpd in 2022, but this was later revised to a smaller surplus of 1.6 million bpd due to higher demand, the sources said. .

As a result, commercial oil stocks in the OECD, a group of mostly developed countries, would remain below their 2015-2019 average until May 2022 rather than the initial forecast for January 2022, the JTC presentation showed. , according to sources.

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Felix J. Dixon

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