OPEC leaves oil demand growth forecast for 2022 unchanged

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, on Wednesday left its forecast for global oil demand growth next year unchanged, while reducing its projection for that year. In a monthly report, OPEC said it expects 2022 demand to increase by 4.2 million barrels per day, unchanged from its September outlook, with global demand expected to average at 100.8 million barrels per day, “supported by healthy economic dynamics in major consumer countries and better management of the COVID-19 pandemic.” OPEC said it now forecasts demand growth of 5.8 million barrels per day in 2021, down from its previous projection of 5.96 million barrels per day. This is largely due to lower than expected actual data for the first three quarters of the year and despite healthy demand assumptions for the current quarter, which should see demand supported by a seasonal increase in product demand. petrochemicals and heating as well as the switch from natural gas to petroleum products due to high gas prices. The growth in the supply of non-OPEC liquids in 2021, meanwhile, was revised down from 300,000 barrels per day to 700,000 barrels per day, in part due to production stoppages in the Gulf of Mexico at United States caused by Hurricane Ida. The non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upwards by 100,000 barrels to 3 million barrels per day due to the change in baseline.


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Felix J. Dixon