OPEC keeps global oil demand growth estimate stagnant in 2022

OPEC left its 2022 global oil demand growth projections unchanged at nearly 4.2 million b/d, signaling the potential impact of the Covid-19 Omicron variant in the first half and continued uncertainty. on global inflation levels, supply bottlenecks, trade conflicts and appetite for transportation fuels.

“While the impact of the Omicron variant is expected to be mild and short-lived, uncertainties remain regarding new variants and renewed mobility restrictions, amid an otherwise stable global economic recovery,” Opec said. in his Oil Market Monthly Report (MOMR).

The group estimates growth in global oil demand at 4.15 million b/d this year, for a total of 100.79 million b/d. It cut its demand estimate for the third quarter slightly, to 101.28 million b/d from 101.53 million b/d, and raised its forecast for the fourth quarter to 102.90 million b/d. against 102.64 million bpd. US demand will dip slightly in the June-September period before recovering in the last three months of the year, when Chinese demand will also increase slightly.

OPEC’s estimates for the call on its own crude in 2022 were also flat against its last MOMR, nearly 28.85 million bpd, for an increase of 1.01 million bpd from compared to 2021. An adjustment of 300,000 bpd to its fourth quarter projection was offset by a downward revision of 200,000 bpd in the third quarter.

On the supply side, OPEC kept its non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast unchanged at 3.02 million bpd in 2022, noting a marginal decline in non-OPEC Africa. The group has not revised its supply growth forecast for 2021, with upward revisions to US production offset by declines in Brazil, Canada, Ecuador and Norway, mainly in the fourth quarter of the year. ‘last year.

He expects non-OPEC production to increase this year from the United States, Russia, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Guyana and Norway.

Citing preliminary data, OPEC said OECD commercial oil inventories fell from 16 million b/d in November to 2.72 billion b/d, 389 million b/d lower than the same month in 2020, 247 million b/d less than the last five-year average. and 221 million bpd below the 2015-19 average that OPEC+ used as a benchmark for its production deal.

Average production estimates from OPEC’s six secondary sources, which include Argus, show production up from 166,000 b/d in November to 27.88 million b/d in December. The largest increases were recorded in Saudi Arabia and Angola, while Libya and Nigeria saw the steepest declines. Secondary sources put production from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, at 9.932 million bpd, or 90,000 bpd below Riyadh’s direct communication to the OPEC secretariat. The biggest discrepancy between official communication and secondary sources occurred in Latin America, where independent estimators put Venezuelan production at an average of 681,000 bpd, while Caracas reported 871,000 bpd.

By Ruxandra Iordache

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Felix J. Dixon