Old man’s winter will boost demand for gas and fuel oil

Yesterday ended higher, after a volatile session dropping 6.4 million barrels – more than double the previous week – which is another positive sign for demand.

US inventory levels of crude oil, gasoline and distillates are expected to fall again by about 3 million more than expected last week. According to estimated figures released yesterday by the American Petroleum Institute (API), this would be a further significant decline due to increased demand.

Petroleum inventories.

Petroleum inventories.

Crude oil prices stabilized near their 6-week highs after the, which maintained a limited production increase of 400,000 barrels / day (unsurprisingly). It is therefore a question of maintaining an increase in production for the seventh consecutive month.

It also shows that the organization was confident and believed in the resilience of global oil demand despite recent restrictions implemented by several governments frightened by Omicron, even though these travel restrictions could likely delay the resumption of demand for oil. ‘aviation.

Daily chart of RBOB gasoline futures.
Daily chart of RBOB gasoline futures.
Daily chart of crude oil futures.
Daily chart of crude oil futures.

Regarding, the Henry Hub (US benchmark) is slowly rising as temperatures drop in many regions, while the European benchmark, Dutch (TTF), rose 3.5% as European gas prices remain extremely volatile due to the reduction in exports from Russia (notably via the Yamal pipeline) but also via Ukraine.

The bullish momentum is also linked to weather forecasts, such as colder temperatures and frosts encountered on the European continent in the days and weeks to come, which can obviously have a stimulating effect on gas demand.

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Felix J. Dixon