Oil demand: India’s oil demand will increase 50% by 2030 against global expansion of 7%: report

India’s oil demand will increase by 50% by 2030 against a global expansion of 7%, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in its latest report.

India’s oil consumption is projected to increase from 4.8 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2019 to 7.2 mbd in 2030 and 9.2 mbd in 2050, according to the IEA’s key scenario based on declared policies. The projection shows the centrality of oil to the Indian economy over the next three decades and flies in the face of BP forecasts last year which estimated that the country’s oil demand would peak in 2025.

According to the IEA’s stated policy scenario, global oil demand will peak in 2030 at 103 mbd and remain unchanged until 2050. China’s oil demand is expected to increase by one-fifth to 15.7 mbd in 2030 before dropping to 13.4 mbd in 2050. India will remain the third largest consumer of oil in 2030, as is the case today, behind the United States and China.

The United States is expected to remain at the top of the rankings with consumption of 17.4 mbd in 2030, below 18.4 mbd in 2019. Europe is expected to experience a sharp 20% drop in oil demand, from 13 mbd in 2019 to 10.4 mbd in 2030.

India’s demand for natural gas is expected to double to 133 billion cubic meters in 2030, from 64 BCM in 2019, against a 12% increase in global gas demand. Gas consumption in China is expected to increase by 50% to 454 BCM by 2030, while it is expected to contract by a quarter to 74 BCM in Japan. In Europe, gas demand is expected to fall by 4% to 587 BCM while in the United States, consumption is expected to remain at about the same level as today.

Indian refining capacity is expected to increase by 30% to 6.9 mbd by 2030, while global capacity is expected to increase by only 3%. Refining capacity is expected to contract in North America, Europe, Russia, Japan and Korea, but will increase in China, the Middle East and Africa, according to IEA projections.

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Felix J. Dixon