Oil demand expected to increase even after 2050, energy expert says

Even after 2050, global demand for oil is expected to continue to rise as renewables cannot fully replace fossil fuels, energy market expert Anas Alhajji said at a recent energy conference. organized by Nigeria.

“The impact of climate change policies on the demand for oil is greatly exaggerated – The impact is mainly on the growth of demand, not on the demand itself,” Alhajji said during a keynote speech at the event focused on the impact of the energy transition on oil-dependent economies. , as worn by the Nigerian outlet Energy frontier.

The world will need all sources of energy even three decades from now, the expert said. Although technology is a key enabler of the energy transition, it has its limits, Alhajji noted.

“African countries can reduce their carbon footprint by focusing on energy efficiency and fruits within reach, save oil and gas for exports or value-added industries, and strategically place solar and wind projects. . “

Many analysts and forecasters expect global oil demand to peak at some point in the 2030s, if not earlier.

Last year even OPEC set a timetable for peak oil demand. In its World Oil Outlook 2020 in October, OPEC said it expects global demand for oil to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and grow steadily until the end of the 2030s, when it will start to level off, in a major shift in its forecast that has set a schedule for peak oil demand.

This year, the energy transition and the fight against climate change have become even more topical than during the crisis of last year. Analysts and forecasters are trying to understand and predict how the still large global oil needs would reconcile with the net zero targets that many countries have already set for 2050, or 2060 in the case of China.

Global primary energy demand is set to only grow in the future.

This higher energy consumption will require more effort to achieve net zero emissions, especially since even increasing the capacity of renewables is unable to meet increased demand for electricity. This is an assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which suggested in the explosive May report that net zero 2050 would need further investment in oil, gas and coal. after 2021.

By Charles Kennedy for Oil chauffage

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