Factbox: Pandemic advances forecast for peak oil demand

A Marathon oil well site is seen as declining oil and gas activity at the Eagle Ford Shale oilfield in Texas, United States, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and declining demand for oil in the world. May 18, 2020. REUTERS / Jennifer Hiller

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September 28 (Reuters) – This year’s COVID-19 pandemic has dented oil consumption and advanced forecasts from energy majors, producers and analysts as to when global demand for oil could peak.

Demand was around 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019 and has yet to regain that level due to the pandemic.

The rise of electric vehicles and the switch to renewable energies have also led to revised forecasts.

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There is no consensus on when demand for oil could peak, but forecasts could affect oil exploration and development plans.

BP – 2019 may have been the peak

BP offers three scenarios, all of which show that the pandemic has reduced demand growth. In one scenario, the UK energy producer claims demand may have peaked in 2019, while another of its scenarios predicts a peak in 2035.

BP peak oil demand

EQUINOR – From 2027 to 2028

The Norwegian oil and gas producer expects demand for oil to peak from 2027 to 2028, two to three years ahead of schedule. In its main scenario, Equinor projects oil demand at 99.5 million b / d in 2030 and 84 million b / d in 2050.

Equinor’s peak oil

BERNSTEIN ENERGY – Between 2025 and 2030

Consulting firm Bernstein Energy expects demand to return to 2019 levels by 2023 and peak between 2025 and 2030.

“Demand for oil hasn’t peaked, but it’s probably not that far either,” the company’s analysts wrote.

RYSTAD ENERGY – 2026

Consulting firm Rystad Energy sees demand peak at 101.6 million bpd in 2026, revised down from its November forecast to peak in 2028 of 102.2 million bpd.

“The adoption of electrification in transportation and other oil-dependent sectors is accelerating and is expected to cut oil earlier and faster than our previous forecast,” Rystad wrote.

Rystad Energy Demand Forecast

TOTALENERGIES – Before 2030

The French oil major, which previously predicted a peak around 2030, now indicates that demand is expected to peak before 2030 and will drop from 40 to 64 million barrels per day by 2050.

IEA – Within 10 years

The Paris-based International Energy Agency said demand had already peaked in advanced economies, but would continue to increase in developing economies from 2019 to 2030, reaching an overall global peak of around 104 million barrels per day around 2030.

“The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end within the next 10 years, but in the absence of a significant change in government policies, I see no clear sign of a peak,” IEA chief Fatih Birol told Reuters. . “A global economic rebound would soon return demand for oil to pre-crisis levels.”

IEA peak oil demand

GOLDMAN SACHS – After 2030

Rising electric cars, renewables and plastic recycling will undermine demand for oil, but growth in developing countries will cause demand to spike beyond 2030, Goldman Sachs said.

“We don’t expect global oil demand to peak until 2030 in our baseline scenario, driven by strong fundamental economic growth, emerging market demographics and relatively low oil prices,” the bank said.

VITOL – 2030s

Demand will continue to grow to reach 110 million bpd by the early to mid-2030s, the commodities trading house said.

“The consensus among all commentators, and my company here included, is that peak oil demand is still ahead of us,” said Vitol Asia CEO Mike Mueller.

OPEC – Around 2040

In its first peak demand forecast, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will pick up over the next two years and stabilize by 2040.

“Globally, demand for oil is expected to increase by nearly 10 million b / d over the long term, from 99.7 million b / d in 2019 to 109.3 million b / d in 2040 and to 109.1 million bpd in 2045, “he said in his World Oil. Outlook.

OPEC oil demand peak

SHELL – No precise date but the peak may have been reached

Royal Dutch Shell has not scheduled a date for the peak in demand, but managing director Ben van Beurden has suggested that this year the pandemic may have already peaked, saying: “Demand will take a long time to recover. if she recovers at all. “

“The demand for energy, and the demand for certainty mobility, will be lower even when this crisis is more or less behind us. Will that mean she’ll never straighten out? It’s probably too early to tell, but it will have a permanent hit for years to come, “he said.

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Reporting by Noah Browning; Editing by Edmund Blair

Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.


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Felix J. Dixon