EIA lowers forecast for India’s oil demand amid rising COVID-19 cases – Today in Energy

May 26, 2021

The rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in India has resulted in various travel restrictions, which have reduced the consumption of transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel. As a result, we have downgraded our forecast for oil consumption in India in May. Short-term energy outlook (STEO). We estimate that India’s oil consumption declined from 0.4 million barrels per day (b / d) (8%) to 4.7 million b / d between March and April.

India’s oil consumption data, released after the STEO release in May, showed a similar drop of 0.3 million barrels per day (6%) over the same period. The reduction in travel to India is likely to continue, so we also downgraded oil consumption in May and June compared to April’s STEO. We expect India’s consumption of oil and other liquids to return to previously forecast levels by July.

Data from India Petroleum planning and analysis unit (PPAC) of its Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas indicate that gasoline and diesel consumption returned to pre-pandemic levels in September 2020 and continued until March 2021. Gasoline consumption and diesel, however, declined in April 2021, reflecting increases in COVID -19 cases and the country’s responses to limit its spread.

Real-time mobility indicators suggest even larger declines in travel to India through mid-May. the Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports provide data on the evolution of the number of visits to various locations compared to a baseline from January 3, 2020 to February 6, 2020. As of May 21, 2021, the data indicates that travel to India to all destination categories has decreased significantly over the past few weeks, likely reflecting the country’s response to the outbreak.

Likewise, data from Google shows that the percentage of time spent at home increased by 25% in mid-May 2021 compared to the baseline period. Time spent at home in mid-May 2021 was similar to the time people spent at home in April 2020, when travel to India was also very low. The decline in mobility in May 2021 is consistent with a significant drop in demand for gasoline and diesel, but the extent of the drop will depend on the duration of these conditions and the severity of the country’s responses to the outbreak. .

google community mobility report for India

Source: US Energy Information Administration, based on Google Community Mobility Reports

Main contributors: Jeff Barron, Matthew French

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Felix J. Dixon