China’s oil demand will peak by 2030 thanks to petrochemical use: Research

China’s oil consumption is expected to continue growing for a decade on the back of strong demand for chemicals, peaking at around 780 million tonnes a year by 2030, an affiliated research institute said on Sunday (December 26th). to the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

Last year, the research group, called CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute (ETRI), said China’s oil demand would peak at 730 million tonnes a year by around 2025.

In its latest report, ETRI said consumption of diesel fuel, gasoline and kerosene is expected to peak around 2025 at around 390 million tonnes per year. Strong petrochemical demand will support rising consumption until 2030.

Global oil demand will fall after 2030 as transport consumption declines under vehicle electrification, while demand for chemicals will remain flat over the period, ETRI said.

ETRI also revised China’s peak total primary energy consumption to 6.01 billion tonnes per year of standard coal around 2030, from 5.6 billion tonnes per year around 2035 previously.

“China’s coal consumption would plateau at around 3.6 billion to 4 billion tons from 2021 to 2030,” ETRI said, adding that the use of dirty fossil fuels would steadily decline from 2031 to 2050 as that coal-fired power plants would become an emergency source of energy.

It follows government plans to reduce coal consumption in China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, in an “orderly” way as part of its push to peak carbon emissions. .

China’s top leaders said at an agenda-setting meeting this month that “the phasing out of traditional energy sources should be based on establishing new sources of energy that are safe and reliable”.

ETRI also projects that the consumption of natural gas, a key transition fuel during the energy transition and the reduction of carbon emissions, will peak by 2040 at around 650 billion cubic meters per year, driven by the consumption of the industry and electricity producers.
Source: Reuters

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Felix J. Dixon